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    NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

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    Warriors

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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Warriors on Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:22 am

    @multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    The majority of fantasy players are going to get sucked into thinking whoever plays at lock for the Broncos will pick up the majority of Parker's points and minutes. In my opinion this is wrong and lets dive into why.


    I think early rounds last year showed a sneak peak into what will happen with the Broncos pack. In 2015 Parker averaged 62.5 points in 62.7 minutes, pretty much bang on with his career PPM. In the first 10 games of 2016 Parker averaged 59 minutes yet only 51.5 points. To figure out why this happened we can see average tackles(34.2 down to 29.5) tackle breaks(1.9 per game down to 1.7) and offloads (1.9 down to 1.3) being the biggest cause. His run metres stayed reasonably consistent. The biggest reason for this sudden drop in stats was not due to age, but due to a different role within the team. Only watching the first 9 games of the year I noticed a trend among with Parker and McGuire.

    In previous seasons Parker did most of his defensive work from marker or as the "A" defender(for those that are unsure what this means I have attached a picture above) with McCullough acting as the other marker or "A" defender if the tackle was made wider. However in the first 10 games, whilst Parker still spend time defending at the "A" position, the majority of his time was spent as the "B" or "C" defender with McGuire filling in as the "A" defender on the majority of plays. This led to more defensive work being funnelled at McGuire and McCullough with Parker missing out on those "easy points."

    Onto the missing tackle breaks and offloads. The explanation for this is much simpler. In previous seasons Parker took most of his hit up on 3rd and 4th tackles when the defense was retreating giving him a chance to hit the line at pace and work some magic, either with an offload or tackle bust. 2016 saw Parker taking the majority of his hit ups on 1st and 2nd tackle when the defensive line is set and the forwards job is to hit the soft spot behind the markers and get a quick play the ball, rather than trying to make something happen offensively. This extra work however was not taken over by McGuire, but covered by the emergence of the young Broncos forwards (Ofa, Pangai Junior, Arrow).

    TL;DR Regardless of who is wearing the number 13 jersey for the Broncos they will not replace Parker's output if last season is anything to judge by. If you are chasing base stats and consistent scoring lock in McGuire. If you want upside pick one of Ofa, Pangai or Arrow and hope for the best.

    Great analysis MS, however with Parker gone and also their third prop in Jarrod Wallace I think there is a lot of value. For starters, McGuire is locked into my side, he averaged 48 points in 57 minutes last year, and I believe he and McCullough are the best defensive players the Broncoes have so would assume they line up as "A" defenders again. Even if McGuire only averages between 65-70 minutes he will average 55 which is gun status. I also think there will be value in Pangai Junior who averaged 22.5 in 24.5 minutes last year. This will probably push up to 35 minutes per game and being another year older he might have more confidence to get the offload going and should break a few more tackles. Then there is Jai Arrow who averaged 23 in 26 minutes, whom I suspect will play around 40 minutes per game and possibly more. He will also be the one to pick up more minutes when the inevitable injuries hit so should be a good cash cow as well. I will possibly start with all three depending on other value I see, possibly in the Cowboys Front Row with Kaufusi/Spina/Hoare.
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    Milchcow
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Milchcow on Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:58 am

    Its also worth clarifying that someone like Jai Arrow doesn't need to replicate Parker's workload in order to be a good value proposition.

    Still, it's a great writeup by MS
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Random on Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:34 am

    Just a few points to raise regarding the excellent analysis from MS.

    Parker leaving wont have the expected impact on McGuire as others are thinking I feel. If as MS pointed out McGuire was already doing most of his defending around the ruck, there isn't necessarily going to be an increase in work rate if he has reached his workrate cap in an essence. If the only times he shifted out further from the ruck was due to fatigue, would that not happen naturally with someone that isn't named Parker.

    I grabbed McGuire last year on the premise that Parkers work rate was going to be slowing down compared to previous years. Which did indeed happen as his average dropped by 13 points in 2016 when compared to 2015. Meanwhile in that time McGuire did not increase on his workrate between 2015-2016.

    So I agree wholeheartedly in what MS says in that if you want consistency in base stats that Josh McGuire is a pick up, but he lacks any form of an upside and is priced at $450k. My belief is that he is a borderline gun. Not necessarily a top-tier ala Fifita, Graham, Mannering, Burgess, Gallen in scoring (Though he does occasionally hit the big score). So without potential upside I would go a more guaranteed gun or look for someone with upside.

    Some examples would be in the storm pack. Whoever replaces or picks up minutes left by Proctor who was averaging 70 minutes last year. With guys like Nelson Asofa-Solomona (avg. 30mins), Tim Glasby (avg. 34mins), Jordan Mclean (avg. 38mins), Christian Welch (Avg. 22mins). For someone like NAS a 15-20 minute could be a jump by 15-20 points. (I know PPM over short periods don't always translate over long periods.) A jump of 15 points would put him 3 points behind McGuires average last year and he is $160k cheaper.

    The Knights pack will have value once again this year, and they are likely to be playing defensive often. With Tariq Sims, Robbie Rochow and Jeremy Smith departing their is definite value for whoever is named at Lock and possibly a starter or two.

    Then there are also the Broncos players who as MS has pointed out have the upside potential. Which is what you want at the start of the year. Either players that have potential gain or are out and out guns.

    Disclaimer: This is very subjective due to me thinking this was McGuire's breakout year and it amounted to nothing.

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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Guest on Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:51 am

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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Warriors on Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:57 am

    @Random wrote:Just a few points to raise regarding the excellent analysis from MS.

    Parker leaving wont have the expected impact on McGuire as others are thinking I feel. If as MS pointed out McGuire was already doing most of his defending around the ruck, there isn't necessarily going to be an increase in work rate if he has reached his workrate cap in an essence. If the only times he shifted out further from the ruck was due to fatigue, would that not happen naturally with someone that isn't named Parker.

    I grabbed McGuire last year on the premise that Parkers work rate was going to be slowing down compared to previous years. Which did indeed happen as his average dropped by 13 points in 2016 when compared to 2015. Meanwhile in that time McGuire did not increase on his workrate between 2015-2016.

    So I agree wholeheartedly in what MS says in that if you want consistency in base stats that Josh McGuire is a pick up, but he lacks any form of an upside and is priced at $450k. My belief is that he is a borderline gun. Not necessarily a top-tier ala Fifita, Graham, Mannering, Burgess, Gallen in scoring (Though he does occasionally hit the big score). So without potential upside I would go a more guaranteed gun or look for someone with upside.

    Some examples would be in the storm pack. Whoever replaces or picks up minutes left by Proctor who was averaging 70 minutes last year. With guys like Nelson Asofa-Solomona (avg. 30mins), Tim Glasby (avg. 34mins), Jordan Mclean (avg. 38mins), Christian Welch (Avg. 22mins). For someone like NAS a 15-20 minute could be a jump by 15-20 points. (I know PPM over short periods don't always translate over long periods.) A jump of 15 points would put him 3 points behind McGuires average last year and he is $160k cheaper.

    The Knights pack will have value once again this year, and they are likely to be playing defensive often. With Tariq Sims, Robbie Rochow and Jeremy Smith departing their is definite value for whoever is named at Lock and possibly a starter or two.

    Then there are also the Broncos players who as MS has pointed out have the upside potential. Which is what you want at the start of the year. Either players that have potential gain or are out and out guns.

    Disclaimer: This is very subjective due to me thinking this was McGuire's breakout year and it amounted to nothing.

    Whilst I agree McGuire might not pickup his work rate, I'm 90% confident he will pick up more minutes which "should" mean more points. I'm therefore 90% confident that he will average more than 48 over the year so I see value in this rather the picking a James Graham type and hoping he averages 57 for the year, which I don't think he will. I am trying to pick up players like last years JDB and Jake Trobjevic, not just picking a James Graham/ Bromwich / Mannering type, hence I will be starting with McGuire and Paul Vaughan. In games where Paul Vaughan played more than 40 minutes, he averaged 47 points in 44 minutes, so for a player priced at an average of 40, I am hoping for a 45+ average which I think is value.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:13 am

    If McGuire nails the lock position his average should be 50+ with extra minutes/tackle count. Last year Arrow replaced Parker at lock in round 19 & score 52 in 54 minutes (he scored 49 in base stats i.e.tackles/run metres & he didn't miss 1 tackle) Pangai Junior could be the 1 to benefit if McGuire plays lock as he might get a starting gig as he provides size to a small Broncos pack.
    At the Storm I expect K-Brom to inherit Proctors's position. But going from 40 minutes a game to 70 minutes a game might take some adjustment from him. He'll be a great pick but maybe a wait & see approach should be taken.
    At the Knights Barnett or Buhrer are the ones to get but it depends on price. But if Barnett nails the lock position he'll be a great pick.
    Also I want to mention the legend that is Fensom. If he can get a transfer to a side like the Knights he'll get back to his best in no time & could be a better pick than Barnett/Buhrer.
    Also Dave Taylor seems on the track for a comeback. The Raiders have invited him back to complete pre season training after Xmas. He has no contract so he might get one if he impresses in training. How he fits into that cluttered Raiders pack is anyone's guess.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Warriors on Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:34 am

    @White Lightning wrote:If McGuire nails the lock position his average should be 50+ with extra minutes/tackle count. Last year Arrow replaced Parker at lock in round 19 & score 52 in 54 minutes (he scored 49 in base stats i.e.tackles/run metres & he didn't miss 1 tackle) Pangai Junior could be the 1 to benefit if McGuire plays lock as he might get a starting gig as he provides size to a small Broncos pack.
    At the Storm I expect K-Brom to inherit Proctors's position. But going from 40 minutes a game to 70 minutes a game might take some adjustment from him. He'll be a great pick but maybe a wait & see approach should be taken.
    At the Knights Barnett or Buhrer are the ones to get but it depends on price. But if Barnett nails the lock position he'll be a great pick.
    Also I want to mention the legend that is Fensom. If he can get a transfer to a side like the Knights he'll get back to his best in no time & could be a better pick than Barnett/Buhrer.
    Also Dave Taylor seems on the track for a comeback. The Raiders have invited him back to complete pre season training after Xmas. He has no contract so he might get one if he impresses in training. How he fits into that cluttered Raiders pack is anyone's guess.

    Read something the other day that the Raiders and Ricky Stuart were very unimpressed with Dave Taylor with regards to the shape he turned up in and the first few weeks of training. I would be very surprised if they offered him a contract at all and don't expect him to be fantasy relevant.

    Regarding the Knights, surely Buhrer and Barnett are at or near max prices with limited upside given their run of form at the back end of last year or am I missing something?

    Fensom needs to go somewhere other than the Raiders!
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:34 am

    Looking at the 4 teams previewed on nrl.com so far (Broncos, Raiders, Bulldogs & Sharks) there doesn't seem to be many dpp players so it looks like the dpp's have been reduced this year.
    Broncos - Kahu, K-Nik are the only dpp players (Roberts, Su'a, Thaiday, Oates, Opacic lost dpp)
    Raiders - no dpp players (Papalii, Priest lost dpp)
    Bulldogs - Klemmer, Hopoate, B. Lee are the only dpp players (C. Stanley lost dpp)
    Sharks - Mortimer, Drew are the only dpp players (Gallen, Bird, Prior, Heighington, Capewell lost dpp)
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Warriors on Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:47 am

    @White Lightning wrote:Looking at the 4 teams previewed on nrl.com so far (Broncos, Raiders, Bulldogs & Sharks) there doesn't seem to be many dpp players so it looks like the dpp's have been reduced this year.
    Broncos - Kahu, K-Nik are the only dpp players (Roberts, Su'a, Thaiday, Oates, Opacic lost dpp)
    Raiders - no dpp players (Papalii, Priest lost dpp)
    Bulldogs - Klemmer, Hopoate, B. Lee are the only dpp players (C. Stanley lost dpp)
    Sharks - Mortimer, Drew are the only dpp players (Gallen, Bird, Prior, Heighington, Capewell lost dpp)

    This will increase in round 1 if any players are named to start in say prop instead of back row etc.

    On Jordan Kahu, other than not being able to complete any of his first four games he started at centre last year, ignoring the obvious injury risk, does anyone see any value in Jordan Kahu if centre for the year and goalkicking? Risky I know but that 26 average could climb to 35+. The last five games of the year he started at centre his scores were 30, 38, 50, 58 and 33, however there were 5 tries scored across these five games (two doubles in the 50 and 58 scores).
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:48 am

    @ Warriors re you Buhrer/Barnett comment. I agree with you regarding price but in 2016 Barnett averaged 50.0 & Buhrer averaged 49.9. To me I would say they'll both average 50+ this year so that'll be gun status. Either one would a a set & forget pick but it depends how expensive they are. If Barnett moves to lock I think he'll average 55+ & I expect big things from him this year.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:55 am

    @Warriors wrote:

    This will increase in round 1 if any players are named to start in say prop instead of back row etc.

    On Jordan Kahu, other than not being able to complete any of his first four games he started at centre last year, ignoring the obvious injury risk, does anyone see any value in Jordan Kahu if centre for the year and goalkicking? Risky I know but that 26 average could climb to 35+. The last five games of the year he started at centre his scores were 30, 38, 50, 58 and 33, however there were 5 tries scored across these five games (two doubles in the 50 and 58 scores).

    I don't like his price of 253k. It puts him in the mid range category. It's all about guns & cash cows at the start. Also Ben Ikin floated the idea that Oates may be used as an interchange forward from the bench this year with Kahu moving to the wing & Marshall starting at centre. The reasoning for this is that the Broncos pack lacks a bit of size.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Warriors on Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:34 pm

    @White Lightning wrote:

    I don't like his price of 253k. It puts him in the mid range category. It's all about guns & cash cows at the start. Also Ben Ikin floated the idea that Oates may be used as an interchange forward from the bench this year with Kahu moving to the wing & Marshall starting at centre. The reasoning for this is that the Broncos pack lacks a bit of size.

    Yeah I tend to agree, just that centre will be my last picked position so just trying to find value in here. Will go with 1 gun and 1 value pick most probably and Kahu seems to fit the bill provided he doesn't get injured. Don't think the Marshall at centre thing will last when he gets run over a few times
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by SI on Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:44 pm

    Saw a link yesterday saying Dave Taylor had "passed his first test for is NRL return". I didn't read it, could have been click bait or a shit article, but might also mean he has made progress.

    A Leopard never changes it's spots though.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:48 pm

    @Warriors wrote:

    Yeah I tend to agree, just that centre will be my last picked position so just trying to find value in here. Will go with 1 gun and 1 value pick most probably and Kahu seems to fit the bill provided he doesn't get injured. Don't think the Marshall at centre thing will last when he gets run over a few times

    I've got a couple of cheap centres that interest me.
    (1) Whare - with Mansour likely not starting the season Whare could nab a starting spot but there's a lot of competition.
    (2) Idris - signed with the Tigers. He could nail a ctr position. With Addo-Carr to Storm, Simona or Naiqama could play wing. Or Idris could be an interchange forward.
    (3) Brian Kelly - signed for Manly from Titans. He has a lot of wraps on him & with T-Trbo playing f/b then Kelly could start.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:53 pm

    flasSId* wrote:Saw a link yesterday saying Dave Taylor had "passed his first test for is NRL return".  I didn't read it, could have been click bait or a shit article, but might also mean he has made progress.

    A Leopard never changes it's spots though.

    Yeah the article I read said he was doing well & got invited back after Xmas to complete preseason training which means he's on the radar. With Vaughan going to the Dragons there's a spot up for grabs.


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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:56 pm

    #davetaylortrainingthehousedown

    Very Happy
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:07 pm

    This year I'm going to break my rule & start with a couple of Warriors players. The first game at home v Knights can't be any easier even though no nrl game is easy. Hopefully they get in the groove from the Knights game & will beat the Storm (I'd rather play them early in the season) again at home in round 2. Every year the nrl screws the Warriors with hard opening games.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:20 pm

    A couple of chepies to keep an eye on in preseason games.
    (1) Nona @ Dragons. Hutchison acl injury has opened a starting half position. Other options could be McCrone (a mug so pass), Kurt Mann (another mug), Jai Field who apparently is quite good.
    (2) Matt Duffy @ Dragons. Rumour is that Dugan might start at ctr with Duffy at f/b.
    (3) Brodie Croft/Curtis Scott @ Storm. Rumour that Slater won't start round 1 so Munster will go to f/b which leaves an opening spot in the halves since Green gone to Manly. Then again I've seen reports saying that Slater will start.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:33 pm

    My smokies atm in 2017 as follows:
    (1) Addo-Carr. Has gone to the Storm. We saw how lethal he was at the Tigers with his speed. Imagine how he'll go on the end of the Storm backline.
    (2) Uate. Has gone to the Sea Eagles. A brilliant player when on I can see him doing well in the Manly backline. Apparently Taufua is out of favour.
    (3) Hess. Tamou & Hannant have gone which leaves spots open. I know he's a 2fr & Bolton is probably in front of him so it will be interesting how it pans out.
    (4) Rochow. Has gone to Souths. As well as Souths playing all 3 big bye rounds he's an 80 minute player who should thrive in the Souths pack.
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    Re: NRL.com Fantasy thread part 51 - The party thread

    Post by Warriors on Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:39 pm

    @White Lightning wrote:

    I've got a couple of cheap centres that interest me.
    (1) Whare - with Mansour likely not starting the season Whare could nab a starting spot but there's a lot of competition.
    (2) Idris - signed with the Tigers. He could nail a ctr position. With Addo-Carr to Storm, Simona or Naiqama could play wing. Or Idris could be an interchange forward.
    (3) Brian Kelly - signed for Manly from Titans. He has a lot of wraps on him & with T-Trbo playing f/b then Kelly could start.

    Whare will be in my squad - but Peachey and Hiku will probably start and Waqa Blake and DWZ on the wings. Idris I will gamble on if starting centre.

    I am most interested in peoples starting halves - looks as though we will need two guns. I'm thinking Norman with byes and running the show, then choosing 1 out of Cleary, DCE, Johnson, Hunt, Pearce, Adam Reynolds and possibly Mitchell Moses will be hard. Leaning towards DCE or Johnson but unsure as they both have new halves partners.

      Current date/time is Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:49 am