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    2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

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    charliemurphy

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by charliemurphy on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:09 am

    Two trades left. Teddy to Walker has been in place since week 1 finals, glad my assumption about him is paying off.

    I will say, after my first year of playing with the big guns in league 2 this year I have decided to come back to league 3 or 4! You guys are monsters.

    Random
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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Random on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:23 am

    @lloosemcgoose wrote:5th to 4th this week, but the last weeks havn't been kind with crocker going well and rapana failing meaning those top 2 are looking pretty far away(3rd still in reach).

    So have to go a bit left field this week to try and find 60-100 on them so i can have a crack at the biccies next round; options i'm considering

    a) Captain Bodene- top 2 don't have him, for me the biggest problem is trying to get the C different from the top lads, bodene guarantees this with the VC on munster/leliua/rapana/smith i could bench him for no real cost if my VC goes huge (say he goes massive, it won't matter as they haven't can't play him)

    b) VC on smith/BJ/munster/rapana with the C on burgess (could be a risk of beeing captained by others though). Could go massive against the knights. and if the VC goes huge i could drop him to create an extra POD

    c) dropping cartwright/johnson/bromwich for  hodgson  = i'll be doing one just have to decide who to creeate an xtra POD

    d) dropping aitken/munster for gutherson

    ee) pray to the fantasy gods that my pods have their weetbix this weeek

    thoughts?

    This is just my two cents, and not necessarily the be all, end all decision you should make.

    Both went Fifita last week, and although Smith outscored them, I doubt they will stray too much from the general committee of C. Smith and A. Fifita. Anyway, let's break down your options..

    You vs Team 1:

    Point Difference: 181 points.  
    Team Differences:
    Yours - J. Bromwich, R. James, B. Thompson, J. Rapana, J. Mansour (J. Hodgson)
    His - J. Graham, T. Harris, B. Hunt, J. Croker, B. Barba (A. McCullough)

    You vs Team 2:

    Point Difference: 154 points.
    Team Differences:
    Yours - B. Thompson, J. Rapana, J. Mansour, J. Leilua, B. Cartwright (J. Hodgson)
    His - J. Graham, B. Hunt, K. Hurrell, J. Croker, J. Hayne (A. McCullough, B. Cartwright)


    You vs Team 3:

    Point Difference: 43 points.
    Team Differences:
    Yours - R. James, J. de Belin, S. Johnson, J. Rapana (J. Hodgson)
    His - J. Friend J. Dugan, J. Hayne, B. Hunt (P. Gallen, S. Johnson)

    Captain Selection:

    Firstly, both guys are incredibly close in score. You would think they both would play it safe, and run with C. Smith/A. Fifita as trying a PoD against the other person would simply set them behind still. Looking at the lists above, your current biggest PoDs are J. Rapana, and J. Hodgson, followed by R. James, B. Thompson, and J. Mansour.

    Let's cover your two biggest PoD's first. Last time Rapana scored 38 points against Manly while Hodgson scored 59 points. While both have potential to be massive PoD's J. Rapana is too much of a risk, and J. Hodgson has only scored about 60 points 3 times. I would say that it is too much of a risk to play either of them as your Captain. You could VC them, but we will get onto that.

    The next two PoD selections are B. Thompson, and J. Mansour as both aren't in the Top 2 teams. J. Mansour potential to bust the game wide open, and considering the match up against the Titans makes it a very important fixture that the Panthers must win. So he has every potential to go big, except last time he faced the Titans he scored 30 points. So the risk is massive. Now onto the person who seems to be your main consideration...

    B. Thompson has only outscored C. Smith 4 times out of 15. He has outscored A. Fifita 5 out of 15 times. When he last played the Tigers he scored 51 points with a try included, he has only scored over 60 points on 4 occasions. He could still be a valuable selection as a PoD, but all in all as far as a Captain Selection, unless he does something amazing. Then you can probably bet you will end up losing ground against the Top 2 teams by selecting him.

    Other selections you could make, and ones you have suggested... Sam Burgess, is a good captain choice, but again he hasn't busted out too many massive scores that would impact enough on the potential of you moving up the rankings and making up ground on the leaders potentially.

    I have one suggestion though... he is coming off a massive game last week, and the Titans will require a repeat performance from him to help ensure that they make the Top 8. That is Ryan James, and his scores have fluctuated, and the player in 2nd place does have him. He has outscored C. Smith on 9 out of 21 times. He has potential to go massive this week, but like anyone outside of Smith/Fifita is still a risk. All alternate options really are more pinning your hopes on the risk, but I think R. James has more of a Risk/Reward factor this week when compared to B. Thompson/S. Burgess. Even if he is a PoD against only one of the teams.

    TL;DR: In my opinion I would roll the dice with Ryan James, however if it backfires I accept no responsibility. I also see why you would look at B. Thompson, but for mine he doesn't have enough reward potential of being the (C). He will still make a great PoD however potentially.

    Loophole Selection:

    The Loophole is a risk because you have both Gutherson and Kaufusi. Let's have a best case scenario for the Loophole play... Rapana (VC) scores 90 points, Kaufusi scores 30 points and B. Thompson (C) scores 50 points. Now if you didn't loophole you would score 190 points, and the loophole would score 210 points. So that is a difference of 20 points in the best case scenario for you. On the flipside say you had something like Rapana (VC) scores 90 points, Kaufusi scores 10 points and then after all that B. Thompson scores 70 points. If you did loophole you would only score 190 points, while if you didn't you would score 230 points. For mine, what you need to make sure you pull off a truly successful Loophole, I would say you don't have that. If purely because of Kaufusi and Gutherson. It is a high risk/high reward situation, but the risk outweighs the reward. It also could end up for naught as Rapana or other (VC) may score low anyway. So no reason to look at it. Though if you really wanted to, I guess you could try and keep it as a potential option. I just don't see it working out. I would go safer and have a solid (VC) choice in case the worst happens.


    Point of Differences

    So it is clear you want to bring in J. Hodgson as a potentially great PoD. Out of the people you mentioned removing. He is out scoring J. Bromwich by 12 points, B. Cartwright by 9.6 points and S. Johnson by 9.8 points based on their last 5 game averages. J. Bromwich is already a PoD against the team in first, B. Cartwright is a PoD potentially against the team in second, S. Johnson is a PoD against the team in third. Out of those 3 I would probably swap him out for J. Bromwich. The biggest point difference, potential to be rested if the Storm get up early. Meanwhile the Panthers will want to solidify their Top 8 chances, and the Warriors will be throwing everything they can at the Tigers who had 40 points scored against them to make the Top 8. (With that said J. Bromwich could go massive as the Storm look to secure the Minor Premiership.) Actually I would maybe swap out S. Johnson, but he has the best potential of all 3 to score a massive amount of points.

    C. Gutherson, while he is in the halves he could do well. However I personally wouldn't swap Munster or Aitken out for him. If you really want that PoD then swap out Aitken. But that is up in the air as to who will score more, so flip a coin? Actually screw that, go hard or go home right? Both teams will look to close out the season strong, but the Dragons have let through so many more points than the Eels. In fact it is almost 200 more points. So go with Gutherson over Aitken.


    Last edited by Random on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:28 am; edited 1 time in total

    Chewie

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Chewie on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:26 am

    There's rumours of Fensom heading to the Knights next season (I guess if that's the case he'll be in everyone's fantasy team)

    Austin the ball-hog might be out for the season, which will be good news for Whitehead owners


    Random
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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Random on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:29 am

    @charliemurphy wrote:Two trades left. Teddy to Walker has been in place since week 1 finals, glad my assumption about him is paying off.

    I will say, after my first year of playing with the big guns in league 2 this year I have decided to come back to league 3 or 4! You guys are monsters.

    It is okay, I was captaining L1 this year. I think next year I will be lucky to make it to League 7.

    pm888

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by pm888 on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:38 am

    @Chewie wrote:There's rumours of Fensom heading to the Knights next season (I guess if that's the case he'll be in everyone's fantasy team)

    Austin the ball-hog might be out for the season, which will be good news for Whitehead owners


    i thought whitehead would benefit as well. but nrl and sticky mention sam williams as the replacement.. which would make it sezer + williams in the halves. i think hodgson would beenfit most

    Chewie

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Chewie on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:40 am

    @lloosemcgoose

    Some great advise from @SI and @Random

    It's definitely worthwhile taking a bit of a risk

    May the Force be with you Batman

    Random
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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Random on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:40 am

    @WT Winfield wrote:A bit of a dilemma whether to use my final 2 trades this week or next. H2H only, so based on my opponent playing JRob and Wright, both of which I have and planned to bench, I'll probably save the trades and reverse Gallen to Fifita and Teddy to Gagai and run with:

    (C)am
    Tolman, JBrom, JTrb
    Manners, Bellend, Harris, Cartwright, WGraham
    Hunt, Cleary, Milford
    Aitken, JRob or Opacic
    Munster, Barba, Wright

    NPR: Gallen, De Gois, Teddy, nupties.

    Gallen or someone to Fifita next week when I can be more certain that he doesn't do some fucking dumb shit.

    As for McGoosey's scenario, congrats on the rank btw, I don't mind Option C - dropping SJ or JBrom for Hodgson. Both have been pretty underwhelming lately, JBrom more so.

    I personally would trade Tedesco for Gagai/Mansour/C. Walker as a PoD over Wright. It should help you quite a bit. Particularly if you can grab Walker. Also who is Bellend? Oh and if you can upgrade Tolman/JBrom to Fifita and squeeze Gallen in as he returns this week. If you want to save 1 trade for next week then hold off.

    Chewie

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Chewie on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:51 am

    @pm888 wrote:

    i thought whitehead would benefit as well. but nrl and sticky mention sam williams as the replacement.. which would make it sezer + williams in the halves. i think hodgson would beenfit most

    I meant the good news is that Austin won't be there throwing the dummy to Whitehead and going himself...*





    *Disclaimer: statistically there is absolutely no proof of Whitehead's scores improving when Austin is absent

    Finch

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Finch on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:56 am

    @Random

    Holy shit.

    Thumbs up!!

    Chewie

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Chewie on Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:02 pm

    Captaincy choice for me this week

    SIMON says DOES  (credit to @bren for sharing the pic)


    I reckon Simon will do it again this week against the tigers


    Bren
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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Bren on Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:42 pm

    Almost tempted to make that photo my avatar. Samin Mannreng > Hasselhoff.

    White Lightning

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by White Lightning on Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:58 pm

    Gillett may be a Warrior next year.

    http://www.triplem.com.au/sydney/sport/nrl/news/2016/8/broncos-matt-gillett-could-sign-with-new-zealand/

    If Foran signs as well the Warriors will have a great team. Also if they can the coach & get Cleary it will be even better.



    Last edited by White Lightning on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:14 pm; edited 1 time in total

    WT Winfield

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by WT Winfield on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:13 pm

    @Random wrote:

    I personally would trade Tedesco for Gagai/Mansour/C. Walker as a PoD over Wright. It should help you quite a bit. Particularly if you can grab Walker. Also who is Bellend? Oh and if you can upgrade Tolman/JBrom to Fifita and squeeze Gallen in as he returns this week. If you want to save 1 trade for next week then hold off.

    Thanks man, you're on fire today haha.

    Walker's definitely on my radar for Teddy, but unfortunately I'd need to burn the second trade on cashing out Hughes to get him (only 7k in the bank). I may do that next week (cashing out 18th man Milford or JRob etc. if price changes).

    Wright was named at 6 with Lyon out, so while I'd normally scoff at my opponent for playing him, I think this is the one week I can get away with playing and canceling him out. We only have 6 players matching including Wright and JRob if I play him over Opacic, so I don't mind canceling out where I can.

    Bellend's my pet name for De Belin haha. JBrom is a concern, but JTrb is probably most in the firing line besides Gall after playing 80 last week and still dishing up 38. Definitely a weakish FR though with JBrom, Tolman, JTrb.

    I really should be playing Gallen over Milford this week, but Gall's burned me so much in the past that I'm fed up with him. If he gets through this week, then there's a good chance that he'll make my 17 for the final (fingers crossed I make it) and I can pull the trigger on some other potentially injured/suspended player to Fifita next week.

    Gagai's likely to go up in price though, so I'll probably end up going Teddy to Naiqama or worse and anyone to Fifita (possibly Milf via Carty).

    bluetige

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by bluetige on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:14 pm

    Just been thinking (and now I got a headache), to keep people interested and make them play for longer during the season we should be given more trades, BUT, before I get shouted down the thing to compensate would be to lower the magic number so an ideal team would take longer to put together so everyone didn't have the same team by round 18-20.

    Just an idea

    Bren
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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Bren on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:16 pm

    @White Lightning wrote:Gillett may be a Warrior next year.

    http://www.triplem.com.au/sydney/sport/nrl/news/2016/8/broncos-matt-gillett-could-sign-with-new-zealand/

    NAAWWWWWT

    charliemurphy

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by charliemurphy on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:38 pm

    @Bren wrote:

    NAAWWWWWT

    What's wrong with Warriors current 2RFs? Bodene, Hoffman and Mannering aren't weak links and putting Gillett or any of them in FRF or at CTR would be a waste.

    wtf is NZ thinking.

    charliemurphy

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by charliemurphy on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:41 pm

    Would it be wrong to finish the year with 1 trade?

    White Lightning

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by White Lightning on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:45 pm

    @charliemurphy wrote:

    What's wrong with Warriors current 2RFs? Bodene, Hoffman and Mannering aren't weak links and putting Gillett or any of them in FRF or at CTR would be a waste.

    wtf is NZ thinking.

    Gillett would be a good replacement for Hoffman who is over the hill & offers nothing imo.

    No Worries
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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by No Worries on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:49 pm

    Blake Austin out with broken hand

    Chucky

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    Re: 2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 49

    Post by Chucky on Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:50 pm

    @charliemurphy wrote:Would it be wrong to finish the year with 1 trade?
    Shit yeah.
    That's a paddlin'.

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