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    Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

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    Boozecluez

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    Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:13 am

    .


    So thought I would try something different this year and document my teams journey from start to finish.
    Through the high's and lows, this roller coaster won't be stopping until round 26.

    Have never really done anything like before,so will be completely winging it, but will continue to update this weekly and post some thoughts on my team and why I traded/captained who.

    Not everything will make sense, there will be risk and some gambles but essentially the end result will be to finish as high up the ladder as possible.

    About myself, I am just an average early 30s kiwi bloke who lives in Sydney and follows the Sharks.
    Other than last year which I didnt really play due to real life commitments, I have finished top 500 (174th in my first year in 2012) or as high as league 2 in The old sportal leagues.
    Watch every game and would like to think I understand the sport enough these days rather than completely relying on others to make my decisions, rather relying on stats or last resort trusting my gut

    So sit back and relax and watch the train wreck unfold, like a daytime sitcom all I can guarantee is there will be drama.(Especially the way this season has started).

    I also welcome comments and advice or any questions, so feel free to jump in here and post letting me know what you think.

    Will also be interesting to document how things go and look back and reflect on some decisions made how they ended up.

    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________'



    Round 1 results = Lost money,injured players,bottom of the table and low overall ranking and a whole lot of ????









    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:30 am; edited 57 times in total

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:18 am



    So 2016 has started and my team was selected.

    Plenty of research went into it and opted for a forward heavy team with a few low mid/ mid rangers players who had solid potential to increase their scores and give me a safe start.

    Won't go too much into the current team as there are no real crazy POD's with every player already discussed at some stage.
    You can get the general idea by looking at it, but the aim was to go cheap on backs and gradually bring in under performing players with the hope they found form later after bottoming out.

    My team was pretty settled leading into the season with a couple minor changes made on TLT.

    I originally had Tim Grant but while watching Segeyaro get injured it gave me a small 30 minute window to make a last minute position swap.
    So looking at both my hookers out with serious looking injuries, made me go with my first real gamble of the season

    Tim Grant swapped for James Gavet.

    Having seen Gavet in preseason and reading a few articles I thought he would at least make some small cash and free up some more for the following weeks hooker repairs.
    He isn't going to perhaps last forever in the team if the Warriors start the season losing, but there wasn't a lot of options either.
    Ended up scoring very similar (From a small sample size) so could say I got lucky for once, but who knows how he goes this week against the chooks


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:04 pm; edited 4 times in total

    SI
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by SI on Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:04 am

    Are we okay to comment in here Booze?

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:07 am

    POST Round 1 - Trades


    I am leaning towards is going Peats/Smith + Garvey
    Peats is good for byes (saves me a trade) but Smith gives me a solid captain option, and less of a gamble depending on Surgess scoring well again. Though with Surgess moving to backrow his minutes should improve.
    Pritchard is on the bench but Peats should still pump out decent scores and looked busy on the field when he played


    Gutherson moves back to Fullback, looking the more dangerous based on game 1


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:20 am; edited 2 times in total

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:54 am

    @SI wrote:Are we okay to comment in here Booze?

    Yeah mate, whole point is just to have a bit of fun and comment or even ask a question.
    Open to ideas,suggestions anything really. Even if people want to see how this team progresses or crashes and burns.

    Just like a normal thread only I will do a weekly update with my team, rank and trades etc.
    Happy to answer questions relating to my team as well, who I may be looking at/planned trades/strategy etc.

    SI
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by SI on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:15 am

    @Boozecluez wrote:POST Round 1 - Trades


    The safer route which I am leaning towards is going Peats/Smith + Garvey
    Peats is good for byes but Smith gives me a solid captain option, and less of a gamble depending on Surgess scoring well again. Though with him moving to backrow his minutes should improve.

    Gutherson moves back to Fullback, looking the more dangerous based on game 1

    So you were going to end up with $750k or something I think if you did Option A?

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:39 am

    @SI wrote:

    So you were going to end up with $750k or something I think if you did Option A?

    Basically, if i was going to go Walker via Nikorima (Instead of Smith/Peats) it would result in 750k up my sleeve. Basically moneyball for the first few weeks and assess which guns to go with down the track.
    Massive risk really as possibly giving up 40-60+ points per week over established hookers, (but potential to make lots of cash though potential to  fall further behind the pack leaders).

    The theory would be that cheap players (under 200k) if scoring 35-45 are basically not a lot different to guns under performing..
    Ie risk that a Walker/Carter/Garvey put out alright scores over the next few weeks.
    With 750k would probably let me bring in Fifita/Upgrade a mid to Mannering and a back to Tedesco.

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    By Going the safe option with Peats I still have 434k up my sleeve, more than enough to upgrade say Ah Mau to a Mannering and turn a Benry via WFB swap into Tedesco.
    Completely dependent on how they go over the next week or 2, but at least in a position to pick and choose.


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:53 am; edited 4 times in total

    SI
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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by SI on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:46 am

    @Boozecluez wrote:
    @SI wrote:

    So you were going to end up with $750k or something I think if you did Option A?

    Basically, if i was going to go Walker via Nikorima (Instead of Smith/Peats) it would result in 750k up my sleeve. Basically moneyball for the first few weeks and assess which guns to go with.
    Massive risk really as possibly giving up 40-60+ points per week over established hookers, (but potential to make lots of cash) but falling further behind the pack.

    By Going Peats I still have 434k up my sleeve, more than enough to upgrade say Ah Mau to a Mannering and turn a Benry via WFB swap into Tedesco.



    Going Peats and having 430 odd k would seem like a happy medium.

    Simon Templar

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Simon Templar on Wed Mar 09, 2016 2:00 pm

    Very cool Boozey. I will follow your journey with interest.

    This reminds me of when arsendragon wrote a review of his KOD-riddled team of 2010, but your project is on a completely different level to that.


    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 09, 2016 2:07 pm

    @Simon Templar wrote:Very cool Boozey. I will follow your journey with interest.

    This reminds me of when arsendragon wrote a review of his KOD-riddled team of 2010, but your project is on a completely different level to that.


    Cheers mate, though 3 down injured already so hopefully I don't follow his kiss of death path too much haha

    Simon Templar

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Simon Templar on Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:40 pm

    @Boozecluez wrote:
    Cheers mate, though 3 down injured already so hopefully I don't follow his kiss of death path too much haha

    Haha. I wouldn't wish that on anyone mate so I will keep my fingers crossed for you.



    Last edited by Simon Templar on Sun Mar 13, 2016 2:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:16 am

    So have had a sleep on it and have made a change to the trades I will make

    Was hoping there would be news on Lichaa and there is some uncertainty around Garvey (how many weeks he will play/performance/minutes). So will leave him for this rounds and make a decision on who to bring in next week.

    With Pritchard on the bench, would also like to see one more week of Peats to see how he goes and his price won't rise massively if I wait one more.

    Cody Walker
    Keary still appears to be on the outer with the Rabbitohs, so Walker looks a good buy and may even hold the position when Reynolds comes backl
    With a -4 BE he should instantly make a good chunk of coin also so can't afford to wait one more week.
    Segeyaro out for a long time so makes sense to move him

    Paul Carter
    Not usually one to follow the hype and have been burnt in the past with him, but can see some sense here.
    With Sutton and Musgrove out, he should be around for a while and also with a -4 BE, if I wait the ship may sail.
    Not going in with high expectations, but if he can manage a minimum mid 30's, then should make good $$. Above this will be bonus.
    Leuluai looks like he might not get minutes I thought, so will cut my losses now with him.



    ______________________________________________________________________________



    Simon Templar

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Simon Templar on Sun Mar 13, 2016 2:25 pm

    Your trades make sense Boozy.

    Good news for you re Lichaa.

    Carter will always be a risk but you should make some money off him in the short-term.




    Pacey's Best

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Pacey's Best on Mon Mar 14, 2016 6:35 pm

    Glad you held off on the N.Peats trade. Best of luck on your journey Booze.

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:17 pm

    @Simon Templar wrote:Your trades make sense Boozy.

    Good news for you re Lichaa.

    Carter will always be a risk but you should make some money off him in the short-term.


    Yeah Carter put out a score to what I thought he would and will continue to make $$$ while round 1 score hangs around.
    Can't say I am disappointed as this is to be expected and you need to look at the overall average....

    Leuluai being traded out proved to be a good move as well with him being injured and scoring poorly, so would call that trade a win.

    (I also didn't trade Garvey in as I plan to bring in a reliable howitzer this week and that would leave no room for him in the Hooker position)
    Niko at hooker gives me 4 cash cow halves which are the best/most reliable for milking, not to mention I don't want to waste these early valuable trades.


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:24 pm; edited 1 time in total

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:22 pm

    @Pacey's Best wrote:Glad you held off on the N.Peats trade. Best of luck on your journey Booze.

    Thanks mate, yeah finally some luck though Peats did score well.. Walker was effectively the 'hooker' i brought with the niko move and scored similar.
    Though with Peats being injured it buys me some time to bring him in later and get some more weeks out of one of the 'half cows' , so perhaps some positives this week.

    Walker turned out to be probably my best performer so the calculated risk paid off there so no regrets this week.

    I mentioned i have a definite trade for next week already (locked in for Lichaa), can't give you any hints for the second as this will involve some serious thinking and it's late haha

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Tue Mar 15, 2016 11:19 pm

    Round 2 results = managed to dodge injuries, Scored ok with the gamble at hooker (+800k sitting on bench) and still made some inroads up table.
    Scores from the forwards were below average again but will give them another week as have more pressing concerns with Mann being dropped and also in need of a more reliable hooker.







    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:31 pm

    TRADE TIME


    So these are the trades for the week.

    Plan was to bring in 2 big guns, so have opted for a howitzer and a future gun.

    I will start to look at bringing in Guns who have under performed or been injured,lost money and bottomed out.
    They will also double as POD's as a lot who started with them would have traded out for flavour of the month players so would have low ownership.




    By doing this along with grabbing cows I am hoping to make inroads into the table so this is my strategy I plan to go with.


    Cameron Smith
    Lichaa is out for a bit and want a reliable good scorer in the Hooker position. Enough said

    Jake Trbojevic
    Great Base stats, getting plenty of minutes and scoring well based on the extra responsibility in the Manly pack.
    No reason why he can't continue to score 45+ points from now on based on that, meaning he is a keeper.













    Last edited by Boozecluez on Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:21 pm; edited 8 times in total (Reason for editing : Trades updated 17/03)

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Pacey's Best on Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:13 pm

    I know it's still early in the season, but at what point do you start looking at only bye-friendly players? Rounds 4-6 perhaps. I always find it hard for a proper balance as most weeks, the trades I want are not good for the byes. This year especially, looking now at players who will play round 12, not involved in Origin, there's not many players who I would consider using anyway, so rounds 12-19 will be brutal for most coaches.

    Boozecluez

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    Re: Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach...From 31193 to 38 Overall - Roller coaster 2016 Blog

    Post by Boozecluez on Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:56 pm

    Will start looking at around round 7/8 as that should give more of an idea who will actually be selected/not injured etc.

    You are right that it will be tough and no real options, so probably best to focus on guns who play as they can score a lot by themselves. That and subs who will play for origin stars but then become nprs who don't effect your ae.

    Ie Nathan Peats as captain would be 120 which would be invaluable at that time of year.
    Also if there is 2 similar players and one happens to have better byes then opt for them.

    Point is in previous years have got burnt when selecting bye friendly players over a slightly better gun only for them to get injured or selected for origin themselves. Haha so less organised at the start this year when it comes to origin

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