NRL Fantasy Fanatics

A forum for discussion of NRL Fantasy / Dream Team / Supercoach as well as discussions about other sports, ex Sportal.

    The Betting Thread

    Share
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:18 pm

    I wasn't able to watch, a game that is so high scoring suggests minds werent on the job though. Bugger!
    avatar
    Honeysett
    Moderator

    Posts : 5039
    Reputation : 1513
    Join date : 2015-09-28
    Age : 30
    Location : Scarborough

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Honeysett on Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:17 am

    I haven't got on any of your tips yet RNT but fuck you're quality mate.

    The way you go about betting and posting here is quality

    Hopefully I can tee you up another big one
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:12 am

    Honeysett wrote:I haven't got on any of your tips yet RNT but fuck you're quality mate.

    The way you go about betting and posting here is quality

    Hopefully I can tee you up another big one

    Cheers mate, appreciate it! Hopefully I can see the season out strong.

    Anytime you wanna throw me another $40 shot I'll take it mate Smile

    By the way lads, I didn't get to see last nights game, but anytime a team can go away from home and win you have to give them some props.

    Hence, the fact that same team, who are now likely to get a home final, are still paying $4.25 to win the tournament seems crazy to me.

    Taranaki to with the Premiership @ $4.25
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:29 pm

    Bit late on this, 10 min to kick off. I really like Southland +34.5. Wellington has made a ton of changes. South land largely the same as last week when they nearly beat manawatu. The clincher is this means nothing for Wellington in terms of the standings, hence all stars rested.
    avatar
    Moose

    Posts : 1050
    Reputation : 552
    Join date : 2017-05-19

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Moose on Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:09 pm

    Jumping back on the Berisha bandwagon this year.

    Berisha FGS.
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:07 am

    North Harbour today looks good. Despite what I said about teams backing up fro a Wednesday game, North Harbour should buck that trend. They clearly named a team Wednesday with Sunday in mind resting a ton of their top guns. They need to win this one and should have the fire power to do it.

    I like them @ $1.55 +1.5, but think anything up to -13.5 @ $3.4 is a good option (anything more will require a decent amount of luck but perhaps worth a shot if you want to take a punt). I'll be spreading my money across NH +1.5 @$1.45, H2H @ $1.55, -3.5 @ $1.87, -7.5 @ $2.3, -13.5 @ $3.4, -18.5 @ $4.8, and -23.5 @$6.75. Obviously much greater weightings toward the safer options to the extent that a NH win will return profit regardless of the rest!

    Also I'll have a small punt Auckland today on the basis that Tasman may find it difficult to back up post Wednesday's game.

    Auckland have been rubbish this year, with the exception of last week, so I think the prudent thing to do here is to wager small but take the high odds on offer.

    small bet on Auckland -3.5 @ $3.5 and Auck -13.5 @ $7
    avatar
    Revraiser

    Posts : 3057
    Reputation : 496
    Join date : 2015-10-21
    Location : Sydney

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:39 pm

    Woof !
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:43 pm

    Taranaki 13+   tonight lads. And a small wager on -23.5 and -33.6 at $3.4 and $6.5 respectively

    EDIT: Sorry guys, busy this week and posted this on the run, watching the game now and I am really liking this bet. I think a live bet on Taranaki, currently @ -15.5 would be solid.
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:11 am

    Taranaki cover 13 to take my record to 15/21 this year.

    I just had a look at the remaining games of the final round heres my quick thoughts:

    Wellington v Northland - this is a stay away game for me with far too much uncertainty. Wellington is the better team, easily the best in their division but this game is largely meaningless for them and Im just not sure what mindset they will be in.

    Auckland v Canterbuty - I'd want to see the teams here but again this one seems to be a stay away game. I lean toward Canterbury 13+ at this point as they need to win and win well to have any chance of a home play-off. But the last few weeks have me a bit uneasy about their form. On the other hand Auckland is god awful this year so maybe value in betting against them again.

    BOP v Waikato - Again team naming important, but perhaps even more so will be the outcome of the previous match. If Canterbury beat Auckland then Waikato have everything to play for. If Auckland beat Canterbury then Waikato will be relegated before they even play. BOP needs a win to get a semi spot. The odds are even at the moment so I'll be jumping all over BOP if Auckland get the upset over Canterbury, but most likely Canterbury wins in which case I think Waikato is the play.

    Otago v Southland Otago with a semi spot on the line and Southland, the worst team in the comp with nothing to play for. Southland showed there heads aren't in it last week when they got thumped by Wellington, I'm gonna get on Otago -21.5.

    Counties v Tasman Season is already over for Counties while there's not much on the line for Tasman either (they already have a semi spot locked up and can't move up the ladder to a home semi). This probably suggests stay away but I've been really impressed by Tasman the last few rounds and subject to team naming I probably cap them at around 12.5 favs while the bookies have them at 4.5. Wait for team naming but Tasman -4.5 the likely play.

    HB v Manawatu Manawatu will likely be in a position where if they win they are in the playoffs and if they lose they will be out. HB nothing to play for but pride. HB have been better in the second half of the season though so I smell an upset here with Manawatu coming off a short turn around after the highs (and lows) of last nights shield challenge. That being said Im not sure there is any value here so unless team naming through out something big its probably a stay away game for me.
    avatar
    No Worries
    Moderator

    Posts : 3357
    Reputation : 932
    Join date : 2015-07-31
    Location : Leichhardt Oval on a Sunday arvo

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by No Worries on Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:39 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Taranaki 13+   tonight lads. And a small wager on -23.5 and -33.6 at $3.4 and $6.5 respectively

    EDIT: Sorry guys, busy this week and posted this on the run, watching the game now and I am really liking this bet. I think a live bet on Taranaki, currently @ -15.5 would be solid.

    Thanks again. Crown don't offer your own line so I put a small one on their +19.5. Spewing I missed the game. Was playing darts and the club had FTA TV on ???
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:07 pm

    Teams named for Auckland v Canterbury. Canterbury-10.5 the play. All ABs OUT for Auckland while Canterbury get their captain back. Get on now while the TAB are yet to update.

    Edit, that line has actually come in so -10.5 on offer now , my bad.
    avatar
    Mighty Fishes
    Moderator

    Posts : 3698
    Reputation : 865
    Join date : 2015-08-01

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:35 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Teams named for Auckland v Canterbury. Canterbury-10.5 the play. All ABs OUT for Auckland while Canterbury get their captain back. Get on now while the TAB are yet to update.

    Edit, that line has actually come in so -10.5 on offer now , my bad.

    I have some money on 13+ still confident for me?
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:30 pm

    Mighty Fishes wrote:

    I have some money on 13+ still confident for me?

    In short I'd rather be on Cant 13+ than Auck +13.5

    BUT, Im far less confident than I was. Unfortunately I heard the team naming while driving via the sports news. What I posted above was what the bulletin said. What they didn't say was Canterbury have made a number of changes, I assume resting some first stringers.

    Im just not sure how this one plays out now.

    Fingers Crossed I guess!!
    avatar
    No Worries
    Moderator

    Posts : 3357
    Reputation : 932
    Join date : 2015-07-31
    Location : Leichhardt Oval on a Sunday arvo

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by No Worries on Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:16 pm

    I have Cant -12.5 and think I may have stretched it a little too far. Also notice BOP have come into favourites
    avatar
    Welshy
    Moderator

    Posts : 9062
    Reputation : 1380
    Join date : 2015-09-16
    Age : 30
    Location : Wales

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Welshy on Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:39 am

    5 fold NFL acca for the weekend

    Pats -9.5
    Packers -3
    Bucs -1
    Chiefs -4
    Raiders -3.5
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:46 am

    Canterbury loss was a bit disappointing. Depending on the line you took, they were actually covering with only a few minutes to go. Then a Canterbury charge down saw the ball fall kindly for Auckland who then went on to score and the bet was lost.

    As for BOP, I has hoped for better odds on Waikato. Its probably a stay away game. Both teams a lot to play for; BOP a home semi, Waikato to stave off relegation.

    avatar
    Mighty Fishes
    Moderator

    Posts : 3698
    Reputation : 865
    Join date : 2015-08-01

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:30 pm

    Awful weekend on the punt. I think I'm going to give myself a break
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:11 am

    Mighty Fishes wrote:Awful weekend on the punt. I think I'm going to give myself a break

    I broke even.

    Was a funny weekend of Rugby the least of which were the two games that got tipped on their heads when red cards got dished out seemingly galvanising the teams who lost players who then went on to win and win well.

    Big learning for me in this round was take the overs in games where teams are playing for nothing:
    Taranaki v Harbour combined for 97
    Manawatu HB combined for 67
    Counties Tasman combined for 82

    I think Im done for a bit too.

    I have Canterbury at just under evens and Taranaki at $4.25 to ride out the premiership with - I think that will cash.

    I also have a long shot of Canterbury/Otago double (placed pre-season) but that would take some incredible luck - might be something I can hedge on later though.

    Mostly Im sitting back now and watching the NFL and MLB unfold to see if any of my season bets will come through!

    avatar
    Revraiser

    Posts : 3057
    Reputation : 496
    Join date : 2015-10-21
    Location : Sydney

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:24 pm

    What a nail biter a double was i took, Bears into Chargers ! Didnt post it as my posted bets lose lol
    avatar
    Rippin and Tearin

    Posts : 1765
    Reputation : 231
    Join date : 2016-03-09

    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin Yesterday at 12:25 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Also, for value betters, and those with access to the NZ Tab. The dumb bastards there are again miles behind the times.

    NYY @ $8 to win the AL is crazy value. They are more like half that on most bookies after making several big moves before the trade deadline. KC @ $26 is also fantastic value.


    Hey guys, Just in case anyone followed me on this one @ $8 for the conference - or took the Yankees to win the whole thing @ $15.

    First, yeah, $8 was a bloody steel, but still a win away so perhaps its worth hedging. Houston could easily win the next two so at the very least (odds depending) I'll be hedging to guarantee a small return.



      Current date/time is Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:14 pm