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    The Betting Thread

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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:29 pm

    Mighty Fishes wrote:

    Yeah mate. I only did $5 at -6.5 looking alright

    Just aye!! Tasman win by 7!

    Nice start to the Rugby week!

    By the way lads, for anyone following me, Counties have named their team and all the fullahs I posted earlier that are key to this team going well have been named, with the exception of Kerr who is on the bench with ex AB Donald to start. Not a biggie IMO.

    Im gonna wait a little bit to see which direction this line moves in to see if I can eek out any more value but at this stage Coutnies is the play. Either H2H (currently at $2) or play it safe and take one of the handicaps on offer e.g. +6.5 @ $1.52).
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    Mighty Fishes
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:40 pm

    Was pretty nervous hahaha. I think i'll have a small punt on Counties. That'll only be the 4.50 I won from the Tasman line bet.

    Cheers for all the input you put in for this R&T. I know only a few post in here but I'm sure more take your tips so thanks mate!

    Concussed

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Concussed on Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:07 am

    Mighty Fishes wrote:Was pretty nervous hahaha. I think i'll have a small punt on Counties. That'll only be the 4.50 I won from the Tasman line bet.

    Cheers for all the input you put in for this R&T. I know only a few post in here but I'm sure more take your tips so thanks mate!

    Couldn't agree more MF! Imagine how busy and lucrative this forum would be if all the "experts" posted well before the fact like R&T, instead of afterwards haha.

    You are on fire R&T! Not only do you post your tips well in advance, but you do so with more than enough detail for us to know exactly which ones you are on the fence about, and which you are more than confident about.

    You seem to have the Mitre10 Cup rugby on point mate! Keep up the great work Very Happy

    Oz Sport Mad

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Oz Sport Mad on Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:35 am

    Mighty Fishes wrote:Was pretty nervous hahaha. I think i'll have a small punt on Counties. That'll only be the 4.50 I won from the Tasman line bet.

    Cheers for all the input you put in for this R&T. I know only a few post in here but I'm sure more take your tips so thanks mate!

    Yeah I'm another that has been following R&T and whether he is right or wrong (mainly right) I have really appreciated his (pre-match) analysis.

    Certainly not at the point where I am able to quit my job and retire on the winnings just yet......but something I have enjoyed is watching these Mitre 10 Cup games, even if I haven't got any bets going.

    It's not a comp I've ever really followed with any great interest prior to R&T showing us the light; but as one of many (I assume) that has lost total interest in the Super Rugby games due to the horrific format and shambolic operation of that comp, to watch what is some bloody high quality Rugby has been really enjoyable.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:20 pm

    Cheers lads, appreciate the comments!

    A couple small 'bit of fun' bets for tonight.

    In the score first/total/points start options:

    take Counties/under 58.5/manawatu -1.5 @$8
    and Manawatu/under58.5/Counties +1.5 @$8


    First of all I think chances are the total goes under tonight. Of the combined 15 games these two teams have played 10 have gone under 58.5. Add to that its a night game.

    2nd, its a close game, so while in some cases one team scoring first and the other covering the spread deserves to be long odds, in this case id doesn't.

    So the value is there on this option. But you've gotta have a bit of luck so its just a small fun play I see with a bit of value.

    Lines not moving on the H2H or points start so probably best just to get on if you are keen to follow me on this one.

    Main bet for me this game will be Counties +6.5
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    Revraiser

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:55 pm

    Ive already given R&T and the Mitre 10 cup my thumbs up aeons ago. Almost as good as apple pie.

    On a seperate note, something I have wanted to know and found it hard to work out as there is no written policy/rules on it that I know of. That is how the 'cashout' works in terms of odds and offers. It is on the whole, disappointing. Example below -

    Multi of three legs totalling odds of $7.01
    Banes 2sets to love in tennis at $1.70 - gets up.
    Over 9.5 runs @ $2.50 in MLB game involving Arizona - gets up.
    Last leg is Dolgopolov ($1.65) to beat Johnson in tennis about to start now.

    Now if you calculate the odds of the two legs that have already won it is about $4.25 yet the cashout offer equals odds of $3.68 !
    I thought the point of a cashout was incentive to do so after certain legs are successful or mid stream games in limbo etc. In the above scenario im better off having the two leg multi and starting afresh.
    Add to that one was a solid $2.50, I thought cashout offers in this scenario would be inbetween the final odds of the multi and where u are mid multi.

    Im letting it ride !
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:14 pm

    Hey mate,

    I agree the odds of a cash out are disappointing, but the cash-out odds are always going to be less than where you are currently at, otherwise people would always place multis and cash out once 1 leg came in and get themselves juicier odds than what they otherwise would have got for a single.

    The reality is 'cash-outs' are simply another tool through which the bookies make money (on average) and statistically are not worth doing. They just play on the fact that the more legs come in on any given multi the more the punter feels they stand to lose, hence risk averse people will cop the decrease in effective odds to guarantee themselves money.

    In an ideal world the punter would look ahead to the hypothetical point where 2 out of 3 legs have come in and realise they would actually rather the money. Hence they would can the 3 leg multi and just go with the 2 leg one.

    Does all that make sense?
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:18 pm

    In fact, in my time betting and looking at the value of a cash out the better option is always hedge (bet on whoever is playing Dolgopolov vs the cash-out option. The effective return from a hedge will be > than that of the cash-out.

    Oz Sport Mad

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Oz Sport Mad on Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:24 pm

    Revraiser wrote:Ive already given R&T and the Mitre 10 cup my thumbs up aeons ago. Almost as good as apple pie.

    On a seperate note, something I have wanted to know and found it hard to work out as there is no written policy/rules on it that I know of. That is how the 'cashout' works in terms of odds and offers. It is on the whole, disappointing. Example below -

    Multi of three legs totalling odds of $7.01
    Banes 2sets to love in tennis at $1.70 - gets up.
    Over 9.5 runs @ $2.50 in MLB game involving Arizona - gets up.
    Last leg is Dolgopolov ($1.65) to beat Johnson in tennis about to start now.

    Now if you calculate the odds of the two legs that have already won it is about $4.25 yet the cashout offer equals odds of $3.68 !  
    I thought the point of a cashout was incentive to do so after certain legs are successful or mid stream games in limbo etc. In the above scenario im better off having the two leg multi and starting afresh.
    Add to that one was a solid $2.50, I thought cashout offers in this scenario would be inbetween the final odds of the multi and where u are mid multi.

    Im letting it ride !  

    I've only cashed out once and it was because I didn't have time to hedge.

    In your example above and with a two outcome last leg and already being on the shortest odds, surely hedging would be a better option?

    Edit: R&T beat me to it.

    Oz Sport Mad

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Oz Sport Mad on Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:28 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:In fact, in my time betting and looking at the value of a cash out the better option is always hedge (bet on whoever is playing Dolgopolov vs the cash-out option. The effective return from a hedge will be > than that of the cash-out.

    Being a bit of a maths/engineering nerd, I normally knock up a quick spreadsheet so I can do a makeshift options analysis and work out hedge vs let it ride vs cashout and the optimal amount I want to hedge with.....never has cashout been the best option.
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    Revraiser

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:37 pm

    And just for anyone interested I cashed out when he was down a set and a break in the 2nd set and was abke to get 60% of the stake. Surprised at that. Doesnt make up for my earlier complaint as to me cashing out for a stake percentage is not very likely.
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    Revraiser

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:48 pm

    Yeah I know guys, I will admit im not a big hedger, unless one of the options is large odds.
    I actually only cashed out today as I thought it would be funny to pass on given I had whinged above.
    Previously every cashout I have done has burned me also by making a comeback and getting up etc.
    As R&T and Oz have said, would be better to make a 2 legger.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:25 pm

    At least you made a profit, well done mate.
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    Revraiser

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:28 pm

    Counties up at h/t.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:26 pm

    Counties win 29 24
    $8 shot (manawatu first score/under 58.5/counties +1.5) came in too
    for an extra bonus!!
    Turning out to be another good week!
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    code delta

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by code delta on Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:46 pm

    Page 51 has been achieved.
    Do gamblers party?
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    Revraiser

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:00 pm

    Great value there R&T.

    Code Delta has made an entrance ! I was thinking myself that the P51 factor has made its way here ! Its P51 !
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    Mighty Fishes
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:43 pm

    Mate you're some sort of clairvoyant
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:33 am

    Mighty Fishes wrote:Mate you're some sort of clairvoyant

    I have to say its been a cracker of a season for me so far.

    I just looked back at all my pre-game (H2H/Points start) tips on here and I am 13/17 which is just ridiculous.

    I'd usually hope to hit somewhere between 55 to 60% to make a good profit over the season so to be hitting at over 75% would have to make it one of my best ever betting seasons.

    Fingers crossed it continues for the remainder of the season (1 more full round + finals).
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    Mighty Fishes
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:06 pm

    How did Cant lose that after coming out so strong?

      Current date/time is Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:30 pm