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    Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

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    Milchcow
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    Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:43 pm

    BEs for round 14 2017

    Spoiler:




    Last edited by Milchcow on Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:31 pm; edited 37 times in total (Reason for editing : I like stories)
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:43 pm

    Price predictor for financial planning purposes

    Honey Badger's team picker site
    http://www.azwebsolutions.co.nz/teampicker.php


    Milchcow's team planner (still draft version with incorrect prices)
    http://www.mediafire.com/file/t8gqrkac3r1tomk/2017+Team+Planner+v0.1.xlsm


    Price Predictor
    https://www.mediafire.com/?b6c5cy0c1941i4g


    Old stuff

    2016 Team Planner
    Download it here - https://www.mediafire.com/?g5v0m0sb7pv2x8z



    2015 Supercoach stats

    https://www.mediafire.com/?a43ytpaa8su2rp8



    2014 Stats

    Download link for those that want to go back for research

    http://www.mediafire.com/view/pvp2ttv8z8t7zbt


    Last edited by Milchcow on Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:03 pm; edited 7 times in total
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:44 pm

    Phil Gould's Chins (2015 Fantasy winner) 2015 Season rundown

    Putting stuff behind spoiler tags because they are a bit long and it helps you skim past it if you don't want to read it

    Spoiler:

    My initial squad was:
    Farah Lichaa
    Fifita Gallen Kaufusi O'Brien
    Parker Guerra Harris James Santi Grevs
    Arey Cornish Brooks Niko
    Aubusson Soliola Kata Aitken
    Ted Tauk Moses Nabuli Lee

    Now that you've stopped laughing, apart from Brooks, I was reasonably happy with my initial squad. I couldn't stretch to get Mortimer and I downgraded someone to Kaufusi during the first round to upgrade someone else, I can't remember who. Aubusson had been talked up by Robinson in pre-season and was going to spend some time at hooker. So had Aitken and Nabuli. Don't believe everything you read. In hindsight, I wish I'd started with Elgey over Brooks, who's name was being thrown around and saved the cash, but I offloaded him pretty quickly anyways. More out of embarrassment than anything else.

    Round 1
    Scored 770, Rank 1704

    Round 2
    Kaufusi - Lisone, Brooks - Lolo
    Being a Warriors supporter I liked the look of these 2. Plus I'd started the year with Luke Brooks.......
    Scored 792 Rank 1295

    Round 3
    Grevs - G Stewart, Aubusson - Coote
    Glenn Stewart was being awarded Ben Lowes points, what wasn't to like. Coote was named and a lock for the FB spot for the rest of the season and Aubusson wasn't spending enough time at hooker to warrant sticking with him. I got lucky starting the year with Aitken which allowed me to grab Coote at his basement price. It also set me up for the next couple of rounds with regard to cash-out trades.
    Scored 943 Rank 113

    Round 4
    James - Friz, Nabuli - Bird
    There was a glut of mid-range 2RF's scoring well above their prices and James was doing his best to score in negatives every week through penalties and missed tackles. I personally thought he looked really disinterested, so my first important decision had to be made. I went with Friz over Lowe, probably because I was secretly part of the anti-headband brigade. Nabuli to Bird was an easy decision. He was/is the slowest Fijian I have ever seen.
    Scored 890 Rank 59

    Round 5
    Lisone - JTurbo, Santi - Lovett
    Lisone had peaked and JTurbo was scoring reasonably consistent mid 30's for a guy less than $150k. Lovett had the lowest BE going round and looked good for a 4th scoring reserve, capable of base 40's and had obviously taken Santi's spot for the time being. Cash generation was the biggest priority, especially considering my starting 16 was holding it's own.
    Scored 917 Rank 30

    Round 6
    Guerra - Tolman, Arey - SJ
    Probably would have preferred to not trade this round, but with Guerra breaking his jaw and James Graham trying his best to amputate Arey's leg, my hand was forced. Tolman seemed logical, with Graham out an increase in minutes was on the cards plus he had great byes. My second tough decision had to be made as to who would replace Arey. Hunt v SJ. At $100k cheaper and bottomed out, as well as being a Warriors supporter, I opted for SJ. Hunt scored 90 that round......Nevertheless, I moved into the top 10 for the first time during the season.
    Scored 896 Rank 6

    Round 7
    Fif - Gurgess, Cornish - Blake
    Fifita got suspended and Cornish got dropped for no apparent reason. Gurgess looked great with byes not far away and was always in my plans, Blake was regrettable but with my starting 17 still scoring well, he was the only option for a cash grab.
    Scored 852 Rank 15

    Round 8
    Gallen - Fensom, O'Brien - Turgess
    Gallen ruptured his arse and O'Brien was sitting there doing nothing, so I decided to invest in Turgess who had moved into the starting 13, fantastic byes and looked like he had a great work rate, although not necessarily the TB ability of his brother. Fensom was always in my plans for Rnd 11 and my final 17, so he was an easy choice to replace Gal.
    Scored 791 Rank 19

    Round 9
    Lolo - Hoeter, GStewart - Mannering
    With Rnd 11 around the corner and Lolo looking like he had peaked, in came Hooters. GStewart got injured right before round 11, the keyant, otherwise I probably would have held him. There were a few options that probably would have helped more with the byes, but Mannering was outscoring all of them by plenty and before he got out of sight price wise, I thought it was a good idea to get him in sooner rather than later.
    Scored 859 Rank 23

    Round 10
    Kata - Gray, Aitken - DCE
    Kata to Gray for the byes, with Sol and Bird averaging more than enough for starting centres, plus I needed to fund my Aitken upgrade. DCE had been tearing it up with Foran out injured, but I made the first trade that I truly regretted, bringing him in instead of Hunt. He subsequently got injured, still managed to score 56 but missed Rnd 12. I thought the wheels had fallen off.
    Scored 952 Rank 27

    Round 11
    Farah - Peats, JTurbo - Faaoso
    Farah to Peats, easy decision for the byes, although I came close to bringing in Luke as he jumped back into the starting side for Rnd 11. JTurbo to Faaoso was probably my worst trade of the season. Being an Eel, I thought Faaoso would be good for 20-30 points Rnd 11,14,17. Hahahaha, what ***ked me off most was that I'd had Sam Hoare in my side all week leading up to lockout (He scored 45 Rnd 11, 34 Rnd 17). Faaoso got beat up by the Burgii, scored me 11 points and was never seen again.
    Scored 794 Rank 12

    Round 12
    Tolman - Bromwich, Lovett - Leary
    Although Tolman to Bromwich was uber sideways, he played Rnd 12 and Tolman didn't and he was always going to be part of my final 17. Plus I didn't expect Graham to be so gammy for the rest of the season. My second sideways trade of the Rnd was Lovett to Leary. Leary starting at lock and tackling the house down seemed like a good idea at the time and to be fair, I got Rnd 12 and 13 out of him before he became a myth. Lovett destroyed the remaining byes. In hindsight an absolute waste of a trade.
    Scored 816 Rank 21

    Round 13
    Harris - RTS
    You guys will be happy, only the one trade this round. Harris got shifted to the centres so I decided to hold Tauk for Rnd 14 instead of him. Literally a last minute decision on the train into the city here in Melbourne.
    Scored 820 Rank 21

    Round 14
    Friz - RFM, Blake - Olive, Lee - Bhunt
    Rnd 14 and holding Tauk worked a treat. Friz wasn't in the plans for my final 17 (Gallen was as a 4th 2RF, with 3 Hlfs), Bhunt was, so I pulled the trigger knowing I could probably make up the points lost in Rnd 15. Blake to Olive was purely to fund the trade and RFM provided me with an extra player for the big bye round. He also played an important part in my score Rnd 15. Another stuff up this round however, with the VC on George 'Anaconda' Burgess instead of Teddy. Ended up costing me 44 points.
    Scored 695 Rank 56

    Round 15
    Peats - Smith, Turg - Fifita
    Peats suffered another long term injury and with Smith only having the one bye remaining, the decision to bring him in was pretty easy. Fifita was also out of origin contention and was part of the plans for my final 17, plus he played Rnd 17, another easy decision and easily justifiable as I was only 1-2 players short of my final 17. Ended up needing an AE this round too, enter RFM and his 50 points. Moses even squeezed out a 54, bless him.
    Scored 992 Rank 23

    Round 16
    No trades!!!!!
    Felt bizarre, but Gallen and maybe Macca, were the last players I needed to complete my final 17. Was happy to wait until after Rnd 17.
    Scored 1025 Rank 8

    Round 17
    Lichaa - Macca, Leary - Marketo
    Six trades left at this stage and I was going to struggle to put even close to double figures on the park for the last big bye. Once again I made the focus the Rnd after and ditched Lichaa for Macca. Leary to Marketo gave me 1, yes 1, 2RF for Rnd 17 and the cash I needed to go from Tau to Gallen post Origin.
    Scored 578 Rank 51

    Round 18
    No trades
    4 trades left. I had one to make for my final 17 and 3 for the run home. Somehow, with only 10 players for Rnd 17, which included only 3 forwards, I still didn't drop out of the top 100. Although I wasn't out of touch with the leaders and my team was going to look great on paper once I brought Gallen in, I certainly hadn't considered even being close to winning the comp at this stage.
    Scored 889 Rank 31

    Round 19
    Tauk - Gallen
    3 trades left. Team complete. I had all the players I thought had the most potential for consistent point scoring, with the odd big score here and there, for the run in. Although this meant not a lot of differentials, particularly in the back 5. Fingers crossed for no injuries so I could use those trades for POD's! ha.
    Scored 970 Rank 22

    Round 20
    No trades
    Getting through a round this late in the season, without anyone going down, was extremely rare, I should have touched wo......that would make it too easy for Hench etc. What I should have done was not get my hopes up, especially for my poor old Warriors who were currently sitting in the top 8.
    Scored 1011 Rank 21

    Round 21
    SJ - Thurs, Fif - WGraham
    Tom Symonds ruined SJ's ankle and the Warriors chances of a top 8 finish. Choices here were scarce and it came down to Arey v Thurs. With the Bunnies still battling to stay in the 8, I toyed with the idea of Arey for a few days, but ultimately Thurs was in career best form and the Cowboys were on the verge of a top 2 finish, so he still had plenty to play for. Fifita showed just how much of a liability he truly can be. Although his punishment hadn't been handed down yet, with his track record I was expecting him to be out for enough of the run home to make a difference, so I ditched him for a red hot Wade Graham. In all truthfulness, if Merrin had of finished his suspension Rnd 21, I would have brought him in, but he still had a round to go, so Wade it was. In the end, he was the difference maker but more on that later.
    Scored 1003 Rank 12

    Round 22
    Sol - Dugan
    1 trade left and Soliola breaks his jaw. Dugan was really the only option for me, although a massive injury risk with no trades left and only Aaron Gray for back-up in the centres and Nikorima as my AE go to guy. He was easily outscoring everyone else in his position though and maybe a slight POD at this stage. Ranked just outside the top 10 going into the round, I figured it was well worth a shot.
    Scored 1025 Rank 7

    Round 23
    No trades
    Although I'd climbed back into the top 10, I still didn't think I was much of a chance. Can't remember how far behind I was at this point, but it was enough for me to not be too excited about being in 7th. At this point of the season, I wasn't actually watching a lot of league. With the Warriors stinking it up and no trades left, there wasn't much point. I'd check in occasionally on the app, but that was about it.
    Scored 1006 Rank 5

    Round 24
    No trades
    A massive turning point this round with ET getting injured early and only scoring 6. I knew at least one team above me had him and with trades being scarce (surely!), I thought this might move me a bit closer to the leader. Turns out, the leader had ET and he dropped to 4th. Out of the teams now in the top 3, one other team, Mansion, had a pretty similar starting 17 to mine with the only difference being Gurg v Arey. Out of the top 3 I thought our 17's looked the most competitive, with the leader, The Pythons, still having Lichaa, even though he was injured. Turns out he wasn't out of trades.
    Scored 920 Rank 3

    Round 25
    No trades
    So, probably the first time I realized I had a legitimate chance of winning this thing. Only 25 points or so behind first with a couple of POD players and an all important captain choice. I narrowed it down to Smith vs Parker, with the Storm needing a win to stay in touch with the top four and at home, he was the most logical choice and there was always the risk the Broncs could blow out and Parker gets rested. Seemed a pretty straight forward decision. Yea, well I went Parker….Ended up costing me 15 points, which might not seem like a lot, but I ended up winning the comp by less than 30 points, it could make all the difference. First had ditched Lichaa for Macca too meaning we had pretty similar sides.
    Scored 1005 Rank 3

    Round 26
    No trades
    I was still in with a shot even though I’d slipped further behind. After seeking advice from Milch, KFP and Shanbon throughout the final few rounds, I decided Gallen was a big enough POD with safe enough game security to captain Rnd 17. RTS and Smith were both options, although I had my doubts about Smith who’d scored well the week before due to it being wet in Melbourne, which increased his km’s. First had brought in Thurston for Arey to minimize OD’s, which meant we only had Merrin (scored 40) v Graham (69), Marketo (37, game went to Golden Point) v Tolman (42), Coote (59) v GI (AE), Smith c (56) v Gallen c (57). 2nd had Arey (22), Merrin and Lane (2) and captained RTS (72). Heading into the Sunday, after the Sharks had narrowly lost to the Sea Eagles, I was unbelievably sitting in first, with only my mighty Warriors to go, playing a Bulldogs side still to make the 8. It also meant I was around 40 points ahead of 3rd, Mansion, who still had Lane to play and I’d already beaten the Pythons, who I felt a little sorry for considering he’d lead for about the last 5-6 rounds. As a brief aside, Wade Graham dudded me a couple of seasons ago going for a weekly. With him in my side, he got injured in the first half and I ended up coming second for the round by 12 points. He made up for it in Rnd 26 though, by scoring a try and having a blinder against Manly which basically sealed 1st spot. So if you’re out there Wade, I owe you a high five.

    Anyways, I needed my mighty Warrior to stand up, thinking, if it was a close enough game, Lane might not see much game time with the Doggies having to win to confirm their spot in the 8. The mofo’s delivered! Although I was too nervous to watch the game, the Warriors lead for most of it and Lane only got 12 mins for a measly score of 2.

    It didn’t really sink in straight away, plus updates were still to be added, so I dared not get too excited, but I checked the app on the hour that night until I could be sure I’d won. Needless to say, winning the $20K has made a huge difference to my life (and mortgage) and I couldn’t have asked for a better grand final!

    Once again, huge thanks to the ol Sportal guru’s, Milch for the spreadsheets, the artist formerly known as KFP, Shanbon, SI and anyone else I’ve missed for the advice, support and ultimately a great place to talk about league. Here’s hoping one of the Fanatics can take it out again this year!

    PGC’s


    Last edited by Milchcow on Sun Mar 13, 2016 6:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:00 pm

    Long rambling post on BEs and price changes follows

    Spoiler:


    Magic Number


    Before we talk about BEs, we need to know a little about the Magic Number.
    Essentially this number represents the amount of money it costs to buy 1 fantasy point.

    The value changes slightly throughout the year (more on that later) but for now all we need to know is that it started the year at 8935.

    That means that, in theory, for every $8935 a player costs, you will get 1 fantasy point every week from him.
    This means that the starting price for players is their average last season * 8935
    Eg Cameron Smith averaged 61.53 in 2015. 61.35 * 8935 = $548,162, which is Smith's starting price (rounded to the nearest $1000)

    Players receive a discount for playing less than 10 games.
    Rookies are priced at an average of 14.5.
    Guys who come from Super League/Union/Jail/etc basically just get a random price of whatever Fanhub feel like (it will be loosely based on their Super League stats, or their stats the last time they played NRL, but its a bit of a crapshoot and not always consistent)


    During the season the magic number is recalculated for each round.
    Its the total cost of all players playing that round divided by the total fantasy points scored that round.
    In Round 1 $83,193,000 worth of players played, and scored 9003 points, giving an MN of a bit over 9000


    Price Changes


    Onto actual price rises.
    Prices change each week based on existing price and a 5 game weighted average. What that means in maths terms is

    New Price = (75% Old Price) + (25% * MN * 5 game weighted average)

    There are other slight considerations, but Fanhub don't publish the exact formula, and this is close enough for our purposes.

    For the 5 game weighted average, the oldest game in the average (lets call it G5) is given a weighting of 1
    The 4th oldest game, G4, is twice as important
    G3 is three times as important as G5.
    G2 is 4 times as important
    And G1, the most recent game (ie for the purposes of BE calculations the game that is about to be played) is worth 5 times as much as the oldest game

    Mathematically, the weighted average looks like this
    (G1*5 + G2*4 + G3*3 + G4*2 + G5*1) / 15

    For the start of the season, or any time a player hasn't yet played 4 games this year, all games without an actual are assumed to be their priced average (eg their original price divided by 8935)
    Due to pricing discounts there can be a difference between last seasons actual average and the average they are priced at.
    BE/Price Change calculations always use the priced average.


    Now, because the magic number is the sum of everyone's prices divided by the sum of everyone's scores, if you add all the prices changes together you'll find the the total price changes each week add up to $0.
    If you are mathematically inclined you can go and prove that. If not, just take my word for it.
    What this means is every time someone gains $1, someone else has to lose $1

    Now, it doesn't always add up to exactly $0 for 2 reasons.
    a) Prices are rounded to the nearest $1000, so over the course of a whole round you can be off a couple thousand here and there due to rounding.
    b) Players can't drop below $128,000, so any money that would have seen them go below that is ignored.

    Back in 2014 when players could drop below base price, and prices weren't rounded - the price changes for a round were always exactly $0.
    These days the total price change is pretty close to $0. In a normal round, the total sum of price changes normally adds up to a couple thousand dollars.


    Converting the price change formula to a Break Even

    Now, to convert the price change formula into a BE, we just have to swap the equation around.
    Remember the price change equation is 

    NP = 0.75 * OP + 0.25*MN*WA

    Where OP = old price, NP = new price, MN = Magic Number, WA = 5 game weighted average

    Now, when we say break even we mean the score required so that the player's price remains the same. In other words, where OP = NP
    For the 5 game weighted average, we know 4 of the scores, but we don't know G1, the most recent score, because that game hasn't been played yet.
    What we want to know is what G1 has to be such that OP = NP

    Play around with the formula (it's high school maths, but if you don't remember it you can trust me) and we can work out what G1 must be for old price to equal new price

    Formula starts as
    NP = 0.75 * OP + 0.25*MN*((G1*5 + G2*4 + G3*3 + G4*2 + G5*1) / 15)

    and finishes as
    G1 = 3 * ( OP/MN - (4*G2+3*G3+2*G4+G5)/15)

    We know what OP, G2, G3, G4 and G5 are. Its the original price and the last 4 scores (or assumed scores based on priced average if the player has not played 4 games yet)
    Before the round is played, we don't know what the Magic Number is, so we have to take a guess.

    Generally the magic number hovers around a certain set of values, so we can be somewhat accurate, but we can't know it exactly.
    This isn't because we aren't awesome enough. The MN depends on the total points that will be scored in the upcoming round.
    It is impossible to know that ahead of time, so we are literally forced to make a guess.

    Note that this applies, whether the BE is generated by me, by Fanhub, by Renegades or by a thousand monkeys with a thousand typewriters. 
    Unless you can see the future, you don't know the MN, so you can't give a 100% accurate break even.


    How MN effects Break Evens

    If you look at our BE formula, we can work out that the higher the magic number, the lower the BE will be.
    as Magic Number is total prices / total points, it will be bigger if 
    a) the total value of players playing that week is bigger than expected
    b) the total points scored is lower than expected.

    If either of these happens, then when the price calculations are done, the true BE will be a bit lower than whatever you calculated it at

    Conversely if the  total player value is lower than usual, or there is a larger number of points scored than usual, then the true BE will be higher than calculated.

    A note on total player value: - as I mentioned earlier, total price changes always equal $0 (before rounding occurs)
    So if every team played exactly the same 17 players every week, then total value of players in the game would remain exactly the same, as any $1 someone makes is lost somewhere else.
    This isn't the case though. Players get injured, suspended and dropped.
    Between round 1 and 2 this year, James Segeyaro, Michael Lichaa and Paul Gallen all got injured (and guys like Kade Snowden got flat out dropped). 
    These are all expensive players, and their replacements are generally quite cheap.
    Next week they look to be joined by guys like Nathan Peats and Shaun Fensom, who will also be replaced by cheaper players.

    In this way, the total value of players on the field each week drops over the course of the year, which means that the magic number generally gets smaller too. Eventually injured players start returning, and prices sort of level out.

    The big exception is bye rounds. Lots of the most expensive players in the game miss the bye rounds on origin duty, and are replaced by cheap players.
    The end result is that last year rounds 11,14,17 had a magic number about 1000 less than the other rounds. This has a noticeable effect on price change calculations


    The other thing that changes the MN is points scored. This is harder to predict as scores could be anything any week. 
    Generally a fantasy game will score about 1200 points on average.
    Round 1 last year and this year were both closer to 1100. Possibly because of extra mistakes being made as players aren't into the swing of things yet. But for whatever reason, round 1 seems to score low.
    Whatever the reason I'd expect fantasy averages to go back up to a bit over 1200 a game this round and stay around there most of the season.


    After a few weeks, the prices and scores will settle down and we can predict a BE with some accuracy, but never exactly. 


    If you have read this far and still understand what I am talking about, congratulations.

    At this point we now know how price changes are calculated.
    We know we can't predict exactly what price changes will be, because not only do we need to know what a player will score that weekend, but what every other player will score too.
    But we can have a reasonable guess. Although the MN changes every week, in most cases it hovers around a certain range of values.


    Why did my guy lose money - he made his BE

    One of the biggest complaints about BEs is "My player scored 2 more than his BE, but lost money, how is this possible"

    Well, as we now know - the BE calculation is this 

    G1 = 3 * ( OP/MN - (4*G2+3*G3+2*G4+G5)/15)

    To get a result here we have to make a guess at what the Magic Number will be.
    If the MN we use is larger than what the actual MN ends up as, then our estimate will be too low.
    As the MN tends to fall over the first few weeks of the comp, the tendency is to use a MN slightly higher than we should for BEs. Which is why this happens.

    There is also another, minor, reason. 
    If you are buying or selling a player, his price is rounded to the nearest $1000.
    But internally to the system it is not rounded.
    So a player who costs $160,000 actually has a true value of somewhere between $159,500 and $160,499
    This can have an impact on BE calcs. 
    Theoretically a guy could lose $1 in real value, but cost you $1000 in his price, and another player could gain $990 but stay the same price.


    Dollars per point over BE
    People often talk about points over BE being worth $x per point over BE
    This is an easy way to look at things, because its simple. but it is not 100% accurate for the following reasons

    When we calculate a BE, we have to guess at a MN for the calculation. But as we've seen, the MN we use to generate a BE will not be the exact MN used for actual calculations.
    So if someone has a pre-round BE of 20, and they score 30. They probably haven't scored exactly 10 points over their BE. more likely they have scored 8-12 points over, depending on the actual MN for the round.

    If we could predict the MN perfectly then you could say that the price rise can be worked out as

    8.33% x the MN * score over BE

    This would ignore rounding errors but be close enough.
    With the current magic number of ~9000, a guess of $750 per point over BE is a pretty good guess. It won't be exact, but a pretty good estimate.

    Its accuracy depends mainly on getting the right MN for the BE calcs. 
    If you get that wrong (which you almost always will) then you won't know the right BE to know how many points over it they scored.

    The closer someone scores to their BE, the less accurate it will be, as slight changes in the actual BE are exaggerated in the $ per point results.
    Eg if someone's estimated BE is 20, and they score 22, then it will matter a lot for $ per point price change if the real BE is 18 or 22.
    If someone's estimated BE is 20, and they score 65, it doesn't matter too much (for $ per point)  if the actual BE is a couple of points different.


    A more accurate formula to use would be

    8.33% * the MN * score over BE    +     16.666% * 4GWA * Diff

    Where 4GWA = 4 game weighted average
    and
    Diff = the difference between the Magic Number you used for the BE calcs and the actual Magic Number

    This also won't be completely accurate, unless you know the players true price (ie not rounded to the nearest $1000) and the extra accuracy gained is probably not worth the extra complexity in the formula (unless you are way off in your MN estimates)




    Supercoach / Dream Team

    All the above applies to Fantasy. If you play Supercoach or Dreamteam, its basically the same.
    Except instead of a 5 game weighted average, they use a straight 3 game average.
    Their Magic Number differs based on their salary cap and scoring, but the concept is still the same.

    So for SC/DT

    NP = 0.75*OP + MN * (G1+G2+G3)/3

    Or for Break Even

    BE = 3*OP/MN - (G2 + G3)

    NP = New Price, OP = Old Price, MN = Magic Number, G1 = most recent game, G2 = 2 games ago, G3 = 3 games ago




    OK, that's it for BEs and price changes for now.
    Sincere congratulations if you read all of this. Even better if you understood any of it.
    Hopefully I've improved the understanding of the game for a few people

    Any questions feel free to go for it, I can easily talk about this kind of stuff for hours.
    If you think I've made an error, please let me know. I'm far from perfect but always looking to improve so if you think you can improve on what I've said, please do so.

    If there is something I didn't cover that you wanted to know, please ask. I'm genuinely happy to talk about this stuff.


    Last edited by Milchcow on Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:13 pm; edited 7 times in total
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    Milchcow
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:01 pm

    How player pricing works

    Spoiler:

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hey guys,
    1) what is the formula or website you guys are using to assign a players price to how that equates to their scoring average (and visa versa)? I'm interested in looking at guys that are under/overvalued etc.

    Players price is determined by their 2016 average * 9475, rounded to the nearest thousand.
    Players that played less than 10 games are given a 3% discount for every game less than 10 they played
    eg If someone only played 8 games in 2016, they get a 6% discount. 3 games = 21% discount

    Minimum price is $138k for true rookies. $143k for guys who have played NRL before and $134k for guys named Joe Stimpson
    (that last one may just be a typo on the Storm club profile)

    Players that come from England are given some sort of score based on their Super League performance.
    Exact pricing formula for these guys is hard to work out and there are factors other than Super League scores that seem to come into it. So there's not much that can be done to predict it.
    eg Zeb Taia was more expensive than Elliot Whitehead last year, despite Whitehead having much better Super League stats. My best guess is that Taia's prior NRL experience was somehow counted in his price.


    If you want to apply it in reverse just divide a player's price by 9475, and that is their "priced average"
    In basic terms if they score more than their priced average they'll make money.


    2) On that, is there somewhere I can find an up to date price list of players? And more generally what is the state of player prices? are some out and some not?

    NRL.com has posted fantasy previews for all clubs with a list of player prices

    You can find them here. All clubs main squads have been released. A few rookies and such not listed, nor guys like Segeyaro who are not NRL players yet

    http://www.nrl.com/fantasy/insiderinformation/nrlfantasyfeatures/tabid/10985/default.aspx

    Honey Badger's team selector lets you have a go at  making a team with all published prices so far
    http://www.azwebsolutions.co.nz/teampicker.php


    3) it seems some guys are getting "bumped" in price - is there any rhyme or reason to this?

    Guys who have been bumped in price.
    Billy Slater, Dean Whare, Matt Ballin, Shaun Lane (possibly others)

    All had good fantasy seasons in 2015 but had limited appearances in 2016. Lane/Whare/Slater played just 1 game, Ballin played 1 game and 5 minutes
    They were all set to be minimum price but are instead in the vicinity of $200k instead


    Guys who have been given a discount

    Jonus Pearson , Josh Chudleigh, Reimiss Smith and Brodie Croft all played 1 game in 2016, scored well, and had their price reduced to $236k. All more than a 27% discount, their nominal prices were between $280k and $401k

    Drew Hutchison played 1 game scored 64 and was given a 51% discount to be $296k (a 27% discount would have seen him at $442k)

    Jahrome Hughes played 1 game, scored 52 and was given a 27% discount to be priced at $349k


    No idea why Hughes and Hutchison were priced differently to their other 1 game wonder brothers.


    Hope that helps.
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    Milchcow
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:20 am

    just bumping this thread to the top of the stickies
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    MrCashman

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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by MrCashman on Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:12 pm

    Thanks for the work mate Cheers

    bosko2

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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by bosko2 on Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:00 pm

    Sorry, silly question (first post), can you export it to a excel file?
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    Milchcow
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:54 pm

    bosko2 wrote:Sorry, silly question (first post), can you export it to a excel file?

    Yes, sure. it comes from an excel file. I mainly do a screen grab of it because its easier for people to look at (especially on mobile/non windows devices) than downloading a file.

    Will get it uploaded in the near future, if not for this week then i'll do it next week.

    Syzy

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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Syzy on Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:28 pm

    That would be awesome if it was in xls format.

    where do you import the data from? I'm looking to build a spreadsheet of my own.
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:18 pm


    I get it from the fantasy website.

    All you need is price and scores (and position for sorting)

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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by bosko2 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:39 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    I get it from the fantasy website.
    Hey dude, which fantasy website are you referring to?

    Cheers,
    bosko2
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    Milchcow
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Milchcow on Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:55 pm


    Fantasy.NRL.Com is what I do my Best for

    But if you want BEs for supercoach or VSDT it's pretty similar. All you need are prices and scores

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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by bosko2 on Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:21 pm

    Thanks mate - When I copy from that page (/fantasy.nrl.com/stats/index.html#/stats) it exports to Excel in an unfriendly format (e.g. merged cells) - how do you export?

    I'm using Mac excel, so that could be an issue...
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    arsendragon

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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by arsendragon on Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:56 pm

    ive gotta get back into the BE's ... I havent used them yet this year. Just been winging it so far.
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    Re: Stats Spreadsheets etc - Break Evens current for Round 14

    Post by Revraiser on Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:38 am

    Love Milch's work. Where would we be without him.

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